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Home Seller Advice

There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

a graph of the economic growth of the economy

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars

As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn’t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Demand is still strong, and inventory levels are stable

You can see in this chart below, the level of active homes for sale is fairly stable, across all price ranges.  New listings enter the market each day.

The buyer demand for the listings shows in the pending sales chart here, the lines are pretty close. Homes come on the market, and they sell fast.

There isn’t much to be afraid of

There won’t be a wave of homes for sale that outpaces demand.  Most experts now think we won’t have a recession in the next year. They also don’t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.  The last crash is reflected in the chart below and shows you what happened to home values nationwide. While the numbers dipped, it was not for long, and they bounced right back. Not only will there not be a housing market crash, but even if we’re wrong, appreciation will bring values right back and then continue at a much more normal pace, as it has in the past.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom line. Opportunity is everywhere.

Supply and demand remain balanced, so what you can expect for 2024 is pretty much what you saw in the last two years.  We helped a lot of people find success buying, and selling, in these last few years, just like we did in the years before then.  Don’t bother waiting to try and “time the market”, lets talk about what you want, then we’ll help you decide if now is the time for you.   Will you compete as a buyer?   Yes. Will you find lots of buyers wanting your home when you sell?   Yes.   No matter what you want to do, opportunity is there for you.

When you’re ready to talk, we’ll be here.  Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Houses Are Still Selling Fast

Have you been thinking about selling your house? If so, here’s some good news. While the housing market isn’t as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when houses were selling quicker than ever, they’re still selling faster than historically normal.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to tell the story of median days on the market for every January from 2017 all the way through the latest numbers available. For Realtor.com, days on the market means from the time a house is listed for sale until its closing date or the date it’s taken off the market. This metric can help give you an idea of just how quickly homes are selling compared to more normal years:

When you look at the most recent data (shown in green), it’s clear homes are selling faster than they usually would (shown in blue). In fact, the only years when houses sold even faster than they are right now were the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). According to Realtor.com:

“Homes spent 69 days on the market, which is three days shorter than last year and more than two weeks shorter than before the COVID-19 pandemic.”

What Does This Mean for You?

Homes are selling faster than the norm for this time of year – and your house may sell quickly too. That’s because more people are looking to buy now that mortgage rates have come down, but there still aren’t enough homes to go around. Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Researchsays:

“. . . 2024 is starting stronger than last year. And demand is increasing each week.”

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering if it’s a good time to sell your home, the most recent data suggests it is. The housing market appears to be stronger than it usually is at this time of year. To get the latest updates on what’s happening in our local market, let’s connect.

 

Ready to be in a new home for next holiday season? We can help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Grayed Out

You’ve seen how gray has become the norm for new construction and renovated homes in the last decade. We’ve seen it in the form of paint, furniture, and decorations. Rip out the carpet, replace it with hardwood flooring, paint the walls gray, cabinets white, add a gray couch, and you’re done.  They call this look “millennial gray”.

Why do they call it “millennial gray” when plenty of Gen X’rs and Boomers bathed their homes in gray?  We don’t know, probably because they blame millennials for everything, but we can’t solve that problem here.  Back to the gray.  Or is it grey?

However you spell it, it has been everywhere.  The perk of gray is it’s neutral. There’s a lot of versatility.  Now, it’s coming to an end as tastes change (thank you everyone, gray is so played out it’s just now grayed out – Jason).  People are ready for something different.  It’s time to bring back some color to the world, are you ready for color and unique interior design?  We are (well, Jason is)!

Why should you use colors?

  • Stand out- accent walls and accent pieces help differentiate each room. You could have a room where 3 walls are a neutral color, with a 4th wall painted a bold color. Or the whole room is painted neutral, but you have a bold couch. Or an office where the built in shelving serves as the pop of color.
  • Feels more spacious- brighter tones can open up a room and help the space feel larger ! Darker shades can lead to rooms feeling smaller.
  • Add character- as thrifting has become more popular, and people are willing to experiment with interior design, there’s room for one-of-a-kind spaces that can’t be replicated like this gray and white color scheme.

How can you implement color ?

  • Accent wall or an accent piece- as we mentioned earlier, we can still use and appreciate the neutral aspect of gray, but can consider some other colors. A soft tan, pale green, or powder blue- there are a lot of options. Pick something neutral, then consider adding an statement wall or piece. For a wall, you can add texture (such as wood paneling), wallpaper, and/or a much bolder color. Or use cabinets, artwork, table, etc. You can see in the photo below that they chose a turquoise for the statement wall, then added a blanket in the same color to tie it in. You can also choose different shades of the accent color for smaller decor items.

  • Look at all aspects of the space- curtains, artwork, furniture, flooring, fabric, paint color, decor pieces, light fixtures, and more. Those are all an opportunity to use color!  Thrift stores and Facebook Marketplace are a great place to start when looking for affordable pieces.
  • Think about the versatility – whatever you do, you’re likely changing it in  the next 5-10 years, so find ways to balance what makes you happy with what balances the budget.  While fresh paint makes homes more desirable, no amount of color increases a property’s value, and your decor is going with you when you move.

Of course, no amount of new paint will fix everything, so if you’re looking for a new space altogether, you know we can help!  Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557, let’s talk about where you want to go next!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Info & ideas pulled from this article written by Evelyn Long for NAR.

 

Fear, less

Photo by 愚木混株 cdd20 on Unsplash

“Scary times don’t call for fearless leaders. We don’t need a gladiator jumping into an arena with the hungry tiger.  Instead, times of fear and uncertainty call for leaders to become fear(less) — aware of and consciously able to sort through what is truly scary and deserves careful consideration and what is causing undue stress and anxiety without being a real threat.”

That quote came out of a quick article I read, here in this link .   For the sake of this discussion, replace the word “leaders” with people.  After all, leaders are just people, individual persons.  You are also a person.

What does this have to do with real estate?  Well, if I’m being philosophical, real estate is about people’s lives.  A person can’t live their life in a constant state of fear, and really, there is no hungry tiger to defeat in this story, it’s real estate.  What’s there to defeat?  What is there even to fear?

If you care about real estate, the enemy is misinformation, uncertainty and the fear it drives.

It makes you question everything, and end up doing nothing.  It’s not enough for me to say “be fear(less)” if you’re jumping into this real estate market.  You have to actually be able to fear less things.  Your ability to be “aware of and consciously able to sort through what is truly scary and deserves careful consideration and what is causing undue stress and anxiety without being a real threat” is important when you’re thinking about making a purchase or sale that will change your life and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

See, if you’ve been on the internet, or listen to the radio, or watch tv, you find pretty quickly we live in a world full of threats, real and imaginary.  Fear.  BE AFRAID.  But mostly, the fear is imaginary. Clickbait. Lots of somebody’s hot take bullshit out there masquerading as news so you click and share.  Sorry for the language, but it’s true.

Not only are we bombarded by headlines full of fear, but most of them are full of misinformation, missing pieces, things that are flat out incorrect analysis and bullshit.  Take these statements for example:

  • The market is going to crash!
  • Investors are buying all the affordable homes with cash
  • Higher interest rates mean people can’t buy.
  • Multiple offers are gone! 
  • Foreclosures are coming! 

Fear, sensationalism and wrong information in each bullet point.   Why do I say that?  Because we don’t write headlines, we sell real estate.  We actually are working in the market every day, with buyers buying and sellers selling, not writing clickbait for ad revenue.  Here’s the answer to each of those bullet points.

  • The market is going to crash!  No, it isn’t, 2023 is on track to mirror prior years in many ways when it comes to closed sales, people are still buying.
  • Investors are buying all the affordable homes with cash.  No, cash sales were only 26% of recent sales, and investors were less than 20% of sales in PA, some areas lower than 10%.  Sure, there are cash buyers.  But not all of them.
  • Higher interest rates mean people can’t buy!  No, not true, people are buying all the time, like I said, we are pretty similar to last year.  Interest rates have absolutely affected affordability and made payments higher, but it has not stopped the prices from rising.
  • Multiple offers are gone!  No, there are fewer, but they are still there.
  • Foreclosures are coming!  No, they aren’t, distressed homes are still less than 1% of home sales nationwide.

That’s the best part of working with us.  You don’t have to figure out what’s true, and what’s not, in the headlines.  There isn’t anything to be afraid of.  You’re either wanting to buy a property or you aren’t.  You’re either wanting to sell a property or you aren’t.  If you are thinking about jumping into this, selling or buying, we can help you.

We know how to look at it all critically, and we’ll help you make sense of it.  We have sellers selling each week with multiple offers over list price.  We also have buyers winning multiple offer situations, buyers getting contracts signed with the ability to do home inspections, buyers getting contracts signed with offers that include seller help with closing costs, and buyer’s buying homes for list price or less.

We are not confused, we are not afraid and we’re ready to help you too.  Call us at 717-371-0557, let’s talk! – Jason

 

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, Pa 17543

10 Tips for a Smooth Move

  1. Tubs over boxes- they’re durable, have lids, and double as permanent storage once you’re settled in. Start collecting them once you know a move is coming! Shoe boxes are also great to store smaller items inside the bins.
  2. Essentials bin- designate a tub or tote bag as the one you’ll use once you’ve made it to the new place. Put in hand soap, trash bags, paper towels, cleaning supplies, change of clothes, toiletries, phone chargers, disposable silverware, and paper plates. 
  3. Order takeout- on the topic of food, now’s the time to embrace takeout. Use it as an opportunity to try out the new local restaurants!
  4. Labels- put a strip of masking tape on each box with the appropriate label, such as kitchen, bathroom, etc. Bonus points if you list the items inside!
  5. Towels over paper- instead of buying packing paper or bubble wrap, use your towels to wrap the fragile items.
  6. Closet to go- this one you may have seen on the internet: with your clothes still hanging in your current closet, just put a trash bag over them, leaving the hangers exposed, and you can easily hang them back up at the new place!
  7. Purge BEFORE you move- dedicate a weekend to going through your items to see what to donate, sell, or throw away. No point in moving items you don’t need, use, or want!
  8. Get a head start on furniture- it can take weeks, if not months, to get furniture shipped. Try to pick out your furniture sooner rather than later!
  9. Consider a new credit card- speaking of ordering furniture, there’s a good chance you’ll be dropping some money during the move. Similar to a wedding, this is a great time to consider a new credit card with some awesome welcome rewards for spending x amount in the first few months of opening it. 
  10. Keep sandwich bags on hand- you’ll be taking apart and reassembling furniture. Make sure you’re keeping everything sealed and clearly labeled!

 

Looking for help finding your new place? We can help ! Reach us at (717) 371-0557

 

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

 

 

Real Estate Market Myths in 2023

Ok friends, let’s shine the light on a couple myths floating around out there regarding the real estate market right now.  There’s no denying that it’s a different market, and sometimes conflicting signals.  But that’s kinda the case every year, and misconceptions floating around about this market, coupled with  people filling airtime trying to “predict” what’s going to happen next aren’t making things any easier.

So what, exactly, are those misconceptions, and why are they incorrect? Let’s discuss some of the common myths in today’s housing market that are hurting both buyers and sellers, including:

  • Owners with low mortgage rates will never sell. Many buyers that purchased a home a few years ago locked in record low interest rates on their mortgages. And with interest rates significantly higher today, there’s a belief that those homeowners will never give up their low interest rates and sell. But the truth is, there are a ton of life circumstances that could force a person to list and sell their home — like a new job, growing family, or change in their financial situation — no matter what kind of interest rate they have on their mortgage.  Mortgage rates don’t play a role in what people want, they play a role in what people can afford.
  • “High Interest Rates” are keeping people from buying.  No, they aren’t. In Lancaster County, closed sales are up 25%, check out our last Market Update to see those stats.
  • As rates go up, home prices will go down, so I should wait. Many buyers believe that as interest rates rise, home prices will fall — and, as such, they’ve been waiting to make a move until prices are more affordable. But the relationship between interest rates and home prices is impacted by a variety of factors, including demand and available inventory, and the “prices will fall as rates rise” belief just hasn’t been true in this market.  The demand is still outpacing the supply, and even so, lots of people are successfully buying homes!  Don’t expect this to change anytime soon, prices aren’t coming down.
  • The market is about to crash, just like in 2008. The prices and fierce competition in today’s market are reminding some people of the conditions before 2008. But today’s market lacks the fundamental issues that caused the 2008 crash, including bad lending practices (they were legislated out), and the majority of homeowners had little to no equity in their home back then. The recent rise in prices was driven by completely different factors — including generational trends, more than a decade of under building housing, and demand outpacing inventory — making a similar crash highly unlikely.  How can I be sure?  Well, how about this next point.
  • Mortgage defaults are at the lowest rate in 23 years.  All time, historically low.  According to Core Logic, default rates (people not paying their mortgages) was only 1.1% of mortgages.  People have jobs, they are sitting on tremendous equity, they didn’t take risky loans to buy, and there simply isn’t going to be a “wave” of foreclosures.
  • Home owners have lots of equity.  ATTOM Data recently put out a report that says 49% of US homeowners are “equity rich”.  This means, again, it’s a great time for them to sell, and most people selling now are able to use that equity to easily move up, or move down, or simply cash out and use the money elsewhere.  Prices are stable, and rising, at a much more sustainable pace this year versus prior years.

So, what does it all mean for you?  Exactly what we have been saying. Now is a good a time to buy, or sell, as any.  People move because they want to, or need to, and despite headlines to the contrary, yes you can buy.  We are helping people do it all the time.  We can help you too.  Let’s talk about it.

Looking to sell or buy anywhere in Central Pa?  Call 717-371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

———————-

Jason Burkholder

AB066232

717-371-0557 direct or text

Associate Broker

Realtor, e-Pro, RENE, AHWD

Certified Marketing Specialist

C2EX Endorsed, Certified Ally

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, Pa 17543

www.JasonsHomes.com

Should you wait until spring to sell?

As coats are put away for good and flowers are in full bloom, the real estate market begins to shift. Spring market.  Summer Market. We’ve all heard the terms. It’s often a busy time for buyers, sellers, and Realtors. 

But does that mean you should wait until spring if you’re ready to sell now?

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: don’t let the market dictate your life. If you have a deadline, then it’s your time. List when it’s right for you. 

There are, however, some interesting numbers out there, stating that the prime time to sell is May, April, and June (in that order). Sellers received over a 10% increase above market value during those months. 

After an analysis of 51 million single-family home and condo sales from 2011 to 2022, ATTOM found the top 3 months for increased seller premiums:

  • May: 12.8% above market value
  • June: 10.7% above market value
  • April: 10.3% above market value

All that to say, the market is always shifting. There are no guarantees in how the market will behave, but we can still help! No matter the market, no matter the season, we can help you buy or sell. Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557 !

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

Outdoor Projects- Are They Worth It?

You’re getting quotes for a new patio and wondering- is it worth it? Will I enjoy it? Will this add value when it comes time to sell?

Short answer: if it will bring you joy, then it’s worth it. You own the house. Do what makes you happy!

Long answer: if you want to consider resale value, consider the following numbers-

bar graph showing rate of return for different outdoor remodeling projects

For all of these projects, on a joy scale of 1-10, homeowners gave each of them a 9 or higher. In ground pools and landscape lighting were both at 10!

Whether you want to remodel for aesthetics, functionality, or just because it makes you happy, do it!

Need a contractor recommendation? Give us a call at (717) 371-0557 and we’ll be happy to connect you with a local professional!

Find the full report here!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

What’s the Difference between a Real Estate Agent, Real Estate Broker, and a Realtor®?

You’ve likely heard all of these terms before and have wondered if they can be used interchangeably. Realtor.com breaks it down this way:

Real estate agent- “someone who has a professional real estate license to help people buy, sell, or rent all sorts of housing and real estate.” 

“To get that license, states generally have education requirements, which include pre licensing training.” These requirements vary from state to state. To earn their license, agents must pass a written exam. 

 

Real Estate Broker- “A real estate broker is someone who has taken education beyond the agent level as required by state laws and passed a broker’s license exam.”

“Similar to real estate agent exams, each state sets its own broker education and exam requirements.” A certain amount of experience is necessary to take the broker’s exam.  In Pennsylvania, that’s a minimum of 3 years, a specific number of closed transactions and an additional requirement of 240 hours of education.

On top of that, there are 3 different types of brokers. Principal/designated broker, managing broker, and associate broker.  

Realtor- This one’s pretty straightforward. “In the real estate industry, in order to become a Realtor—a licensed agent with the ability to use that widely respected title—an agent needs to be a member of the National Association of Realtors®. As a member, a person subscribes to the standards of the association and its code of ethics.”

 

Beyond those titles, a Realtor® can also earn designations and certifications through the National Association of Realtors (NAR). These are the acronyms listed after a Realtor’s name, such as CMS, CCIM, etc.

NAR provides “provide a wide range of programs and services that help members increase their skills, proficiency, and knowledge…Real estate designations and certifications through NAR are specialized credentials for REALTORS®.”

What’s the difference between a designation and certification? A Realtor pays annual dues for a designation, where as a certification only requires an application fee. 

Here are a few examples of designations an agent can earn:

And some examples of certifications:

You can read more about the designations and certifications by going to NAR’s article here.

 

Fun fact, Jason earned his Associates Broker’s license in 2007, and has these designations/certifications:

e-Pro, Real Estate Negotiation Expert, At Home With Diversity, Certified Marketing Specialist, is a LGBTQA Real Estate Alliance Certified Ally and is C2EX Endorsed by the National Association of Realtors. 

 

Looking to buy or sell in Central PA? We can help ! Reach us at (717) 371-0557

 

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

 

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

 

A Tidy Home In No Time

We all want a tidy home with no clutter, but most of us don’t have the hours to dedicate to deep clean-outs. The solution: finding moments in your daily life for a few minutes of organization. 

  • Waiting for water to boil- go through your kitchen utensils and decide what to keep, donate, or throw away. You can also wipe down your microwave, counters, or clear out any old leftovers in the fridge. 

  • Grabbing a Tupperware container with no lid- time to admit defeat and throw it away. Same goes for any lids without a match!

  • Brushing your teeth- clear out your medicine chest and vanity of expired medications and cosmetics. 

  • Breaking down an Amazon box- keep it as a donation box! Give Back Box allows you to donate and ship your unwanted clothing and household goods to charity, for FREE!

  • Putting away laundry- throw out any lone socks or other item of clothing that’s past its prime.

  • Letting your conditioner sit- sort through body washes, shampoos, conditioner, old razors, bath poofs, and anything else that’s taking up real estate in your shower.

  • Watching TV- go through junk mail, magazines, and circulars

  • Putting clean sheets on the bed- if you’re avoiding another set of sheets, ask yourself why. Are they scratchy? Ugly? Decide whether to donate or throw away! Keep in mind that animal shelters will happily accept bedding and towels!

  • On hold with customer service- go through your junk drawer!

  • Hanging up your coat- are there any that could be donated? Thrown away? Sold?

Rome wasn’t built in a day and your house won’t be clutter free tomorrow, but chipping away bit by bit is manageable and adds up!

Source: houselogic.com

Looking to buy or sell in Central PA? We can help ! Reach us at (717) 371-0557

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

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