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Local Real Estate Market Data

There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

a graph of the economic growth of the economy

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars

As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn’t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Demand is still strong, and inventory levels are stable

You can see in this chart below, the level of active homes for sale is fairly stable, across all price ranges.  New listings enter the market each day.

The buyer demand for the listings shows in the pending sales chart here, the lines are pretty close. Homes come on the market, and they sell fast.

There isn’t much to be afraid of

There won’t be a wave of homes for sale that outpaces demand.  Most experts now think we won’t have a recession in the next year. They also don’t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.  The last crash is reflected in the chart below and shows you what happened to home values nationwide. While the numbers dipped, it was not for long, and they bounced right back. Not only will there not be a housing market crash, but even if we’re wrong, appreciation will bring values right back and then continue at a much more normal pace, as it has in the past.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom line. Opportunity is everywhere.

Supply and demand remain balanced, so what you can expect for 2024 is pretty much what you saw in the last two years.  We helped a lot of people find success buying, and selling, in these last few years, just like we did in the years before then.  Don’t bother waiting to try and “time the market”, lets talk about what you want, then we’ll help you decide if now is the time for you.   Will you compete as a buyer?   Yes. Will you find lots of buyers wanting your home when you sell?   Yes.   No matter what you want to do, opportunity is there for you.

When you’re ready to talk, we’ll be here.  Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Real Estate Market Myths in 2023

Ok friends, let’s shine the light on a couple myths floating around out there regarding the real estate market right now.  There’s no denying that it’s a different market, and sometimes conflicting signals.  But that’s kinda the case every year, and misconceptions floating around about this market, coupled with  people filling airtime trying to “predict” what’s going to happen next aren’t making things any easier.

So what, exactly, are those misconceptions, and why are they incorrect? Let’s discuss some of the common myths in today’s housing market that are hurting both buyers and sellers, including:

  • Owners with low mortgage rates will never sell. Many buyers that purchased a home a few years ago locked in record low interest rates on their mortgages. And with interest rates significantly higher today, there’s a belief that those homeowners will never give up their low interest rates and sell. But the truth is, there are a ton of life circumstances that could force a person to list and sell their home — like a new job, growing family, or change in their financial situation — no matter what kind of interest rate they have on their mortgage.  Mortgage rates don’t play a role in what people want, they play a role in what people can afford.
  • “High Interest Rates” are keeping people from buying.  No, they aren’t. In Lancaster County, closed sales are up 25%, check out our last Market Update to see those stats.
  • As rates go up, home prices will go down, so I should wait. Many buyers believe that as interest rates rise, home prices will fall — and, as such, they’ve been waiting to make a move until prices are more affordable. But the relationship between interest rates and home prices is impacted by a variety of factors, including demand and available inventory, and the “prices will fall as rates rise” belief just hasn’t been true in this market.  The demand is still outpacing the supply, and even so, lots of people are successfully buying homes!  Don’t expect this to change anytime soon, prices aren’t coming down.
  • The market is about to crash, just like in 2008. The prices and fierce competition in today’s market are reminding some people of the conditions before 2008. But today’s market lacks the fundamental issues that caused the 2008 crash, including bad lending practices (they were legislated out), and the majority of homeowners had little to no equity in their home back then. The recent rise in prices was driven by completely different factors — including generational trends, more than a decade of under building housing, and demand outpacing inventory — making a similar crash highly unlikely.  How can I be sure?  Well, how about this next point.
  • Mortgage defaults are at the lowest rate in 23 years.  All time, historically low.  According to Core Logic, default rates (people not paying their mortgages) was only 1.1% of mortgages.  People have jobs, they are sitting on tremendous equity, they didn’t take risky loans to buy, and there simply isn’t going to be a “wave” of foreclosures.
  • Home owners have lots of equity.  ATTOM Data recently put out a report that says 49% of US homeowners are “equity rich”.  This means, again, it’s a great time for them to sell, and most people selling now are able to use that equity to easily move up, or move down, or simply cash out and use the money elsewhere.  Prices are stable, and rising, at a much more sustainable pace this year versus prior years.

So, what does it all mean for you?  Exactly what we have been saying. Now is a good a time to buy, or sell, as any.  People move because they want to, or need to, and despite headlines to the contrary, yes you can buy.  We are helping people do it all the time.  We can help you too.  Let’s talk about it.

Looking to sell or buy anywhere in Central Pa?  Call 717-371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

———————-

Jason Burkholder

AB066232

717-371-0557 direct or text

Associate Broker

Realtor, e-Pro, RENE, AHWD

Certified Marketing Specialist

C2EX Endorsed, Certified Ally

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, Pa 17543

www.JasonsHomes.com

Lancaster County & Beyond- Market Update June 2023

The numbers are in- closed sales are up in Lancaster County and for Pennsylvania as a whole!  We’re still moving forward with a lot of buyers buying, and sellers selling, despite a lower inventory that has been making headlines for the last few years.   If you’re thinking of selling or buying, it is as good a time as any.  Call us, let’s talk about the headlines and numbers, what they do and don’t mean for you.  Lots of “affordable homes” are selling, as you can see based on median sales prices, and lots of folks are successfully closing with mortgages, so you aren’t losing to “cash buyers” all the time.  That myth is pretty pervasive, so we continue to try and dispel that with facts.

Let’s talk about those June numbers now!  You probably noticed, it’s almost the end of July, so why are we talking about June?  Well, closed sales are what they call a lagging indicator, it takes a few weeks after the end of the month for us to say the closings are all recorded, and the data is accurate, so, we are always a little behind.

Anyway, back to the point!   Closings are up a little, which means the number of homes hitting the market are continuing to increase a little.  Expect more of the same this year in general, opportunity is there if you’re interested in making a move.

You’ll see a bit of a lag next month, as seasonal vacations slow down things, but don’t look at that as an indicator, think of it like highway traffic when you’re headed to the beach.  It slows you down, but soon enough you pass it and get where you’re going!  June and July are big vacation months in South Central Pa and the mid Atlantic, so you’ll see it reflected in the numbers next month.

Let’s start with Pennsylvania in general: Compared to May, closed sales are up 12% overall, with a total of 12,383 for the state  (according to PAR)

In Lancaster County, closed sales are up 25%, and as always, our area outperforms many parts of the state.  Here’s a look:

 

In June, almost 70% of homes were bought with financing. You don’t need to pay all cash to get a home in this market. We’re connected with experienced lenders, with every program imaginable. Call or text us at (717) 371-0557 and we’ll get you on the right path!

Median Sales Prices and Number of Units Sold for Lancaster County School Districts in June 2023:

Solanco (15): $375,00

Pequea Valley (3): $343,519

Penn Manor (40): $328,450

Columbia (13): $215,000

School District of Lancaster (85): $235,900

Eastern Lancaster (21): $285,000

Conestoga Valley (16): $320,500

Lampeter Strasburg (17): $355,000

Warwick (26): $372,500

Cocalico (22): $319,900

Elizabethtown (26): $318,500

Manheim Central (23): $280,000

Ephrata (48): $352,00

Donegal (21): $280,000

Manheim Township (65): $425,000

Hempfield (62): $355,000

 

Zooming out of Lancaster County, here’s what the surrounding counties look like:

 

Need help buying or selling in any of these counties? We’re happy to help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

Lancaster County & Beyond Market Update- May 2023

As we begin to step out of the “spring market,” things are picking up in Lancaster County!

Compared to April, we had more units sold, more new listings, and roughly the same number of pendings. When the June report comes out, we’ll likely see more pendings as these new listings go under contract!

What does this mean? It means there’s opportunity for everyone. Buyers and sellers. The market is active. There’s room for you too.

When it comes to pricing in Lancaster County, here’s where we’re at:

The percentage of homes bought with a mortgage has held steady this year. We’re connected with experienced lenders, with every program imaginable. There could be financing options you’re not aware of! Reach out at (717) 371-0557 and we’ll connect you with the right lender for you.

Median Sales Prices and Number of Units Sold for Lancaster County School Districts in May 2023:

Solanco (12): $390,662

Pequea Valley (9): $405,000

Penn Manor (35): $325,000

Columbia (15): $192,000

School District of Lancaster (73): $234,300

Eastern Lancaster (17): $353,250

Conestoga Valley (15): $350,000

Lampeter Strasburg (10): $381,500

Warwick (24): $386,000

Cocalico (17): $309,900

Elizabethtown (37): $290,000

Manheim Central (23): $319,995

Ephrata (25): $312,000

Donegal (17): $269,900

Manheim Township (40): $445,000

Hempfield (36): $311,250

 

The real estate market is local. Each area can be different. That’s why we include a snapshot for our surrounding counties as well!

 

Need help buying or selling in any of these counties? We’re happy to help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

Lancaster County & Beyond Market Update- April 2023

This month we’ve got numbers for all of Central PA, courtesy of Bright MLS! Long story short, similar to what we’ve been saying, there’s still plenty of opportunity for buyers and sellers right here in Central PA.

Don’t watch national news for local coverage friends, the numbers won’t tell you the reality here. Home sales (pending and closed) would have been, and would still be, higher if we had more inventory (homes for sale). There is still a lot of buyer demand.  Does that mean a buyer can’t compete?  No, not at all.  The reason the listing inventory isn’t rising is a multifaceted discussion, but the main reason?  Buyers are buying as quickly as they come on the market, and then those are the closings you see.

Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, we can help you navigate this market. We’ve been through the ups and downs of the real estate market and have the experience to help you.   Questions on these things and what they mean?  Just ask, we are here to help !

Let’s dive in!

If you’re a buyer, don’t let the current interest rates scare you away from buying. The interest on rent is still 100% and you can refinance your mortgage when interest rates decrease. Don’t let the market dictate when it’s time to buy, or sell, for that matter. The best time for you to make a move is when it’s right for you!

While homes aren’t sitting on the market long (7 days is the current median), that doesn’t mean buyers don’t have a chance. Work with a Realtor who can help you write competitive offers, while still looking out for your best interests. Yes, that is possible. We can help.

If you look at the column on the right, you’ll see the Home Demand Index (HDI) for each county. HDI “tracks pre-sale activity to measure housing market competitiveness.” Overall, Central PA is at a 93, which is in the “steady” range. You can learn more about the HDI here.

Now, focusing on Lancaster County specifically, here’s a snapshot for April ’23:

Again, if we had more inventory, we’d have more solds and more pendings, but that doesn’t mean you can’t buy.

Mortgages still hold the majority for home financing! This percentage has remained steady the last several months.

Hyper local, this is what Warwick School District looks like:

Median Sales Prices and Number of Units Sold for Lancaster County School Districts in March 2023:

Solanco (13): $355,000

Pequea Valley (2): $410,000

Penn Manor (27): $291,250

Columbia (7): $195,000

School District of Lancaster (55): $215,000

Eastern Lancaster (15): $282,000

Conestoga Valley (13): $307,650

Lampeter Strasburg (17): $355,200

Warwick (20): $335,375

Cocalico (14): $287,500

Elizabethtown (22): $323,750

Manheim Central (20): $323,000

Ephrata (11): $226,000

Donegal (18): $275,250

Manheim Township (36): $384,900

Hempfield (25): $340,000

 

For our surrounding counties:

Need help buying or selling in any of these counties? We’re happy to help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

Lancaster County & Beyond Market Update- March 2023

Another month, another market update for not only Lancaster County, but also our surrounding counties!

Numbers. They make the world go round, some say math is a universal language. The thing to remember about numbers is that they simply are.  What does that mean?  They “are”?  Well, it means, despite what someone on a Tiktok, Instagram or tv channel says, the world is not ending.  The market is not crashing.  Far from it actually.   Let’s see what the numbers say, and of course, if you ever want to discuss any of this, you can always call us at 717-371-0557!

Let’s look at a snapshot of Lancaster County:

Compared to February, things are getting a little busier, which is exactly what we expected!

When it comes to the median and average sold price for March, numbers are holding steady.  Don’t believe the hype friends, home prices are stable and still rising at “normal” appreciation levels.

Here’s where we’re at (based on the 375 units sold last month):

And again, mortgages are still the most popular form of financing.

Median Sales Prices and Number of Units Sold for Lancaster County School Districts in March 2023:

Solanco (24): $310,000

Pequea Valley (4): $400,000

Penn Manor (28): $281,500

Columbia (15): $175,000

School District of Lancaster (75): $229,900

Eastern Lancaster (16): $325,000

Conestoga Valley (18): $319,000

Lampeter Strasburg (13): $395,000

Warwick (19): $325,000

Cocalico (14): $268,000

Elizabethtown (21): $270,000

Manheim Central (12): $348,000

Ephrata (26): $280,719

Donegal (15): $250,000

Manheim Township (39): $383,800

Hempfield (33): $350,000

 

When it comes to our surrounding counties, here’s where we’re at:

Need help buying or selling in any of these counties? We’re happy to help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

Lancaster County Market Update- February 2023

The February numbers are in for Lancaster County! Let’s take a look.

Another month of opportunity for lots of sellers and buyers.  Let’s take a quick look at some numbers that you might find useful!

Half of homes sold for less than $260,000.  As we said last month, there are affordable homes out there, they are simply selling quickly.

Mortgages are still the most popular way to purchase, versus cash.  Not sure what your financing options are?  We partner with trusted lenders that offer every program imaginable- give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557 and we’ll connect you with the lender that’s right for you!

The average sales price is a bit different than the median, in the way it’s calculated.   They aren’t too different this month though!

302 new listings and 331 listings under contract in February.   New homes are coming on the market all the time, and they are selling fast.  There’s a home out there for you, you can buy, you just have to be as fast as everyone else!  Your best way to do that is to talk to us.  Let’s get you ready before you see the home you love, so when you do see it, we can move quickly.

Zooming in, here’s where we’re at for the Warwick School District.  The median sales price is a point where the exact middle is, and like most of the county, lots of affordable opportunities pop up each month, as the median is where you find half the sales under that price, and half the sales over it.

Median Sales Prices and Number of Units Sold for Lancaster County School Districts in February 2023:

Solanco (17): $265,000

Pequea Valley (3): $100,000

Penn Manor (18): $265,000

Columbia (4): $267,250

School District of Lancaster (46): $196,750

Eastern Lancaster (7): $385,000

Conestoga Valley (10): $270,500

Lampeter Strasburg (10): $349,000

Cocalico (11): $237,000

Elizabethtown (19): $271,000

Manheim Central (20): $243,000

Ephrata (19): $235,000

Donegal (10): $265,000

Manheim Township (22): $352,450

Not sure where to start when it comes to buying or selling?   Want to discuss these numbers and how they affect you?  We can help! We’ll tell you what works best for you personally, because when it comes down to real estate, the best time to buy or sell is when it works for YOU!

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

 

 

 

Lancaster County Market Update- January 2023

The real estate market is local. There is no national real estate market, just like there is no national weather forecast. Well.  There is a “national” weather forecast, it’s just that 99% of it simply doesn’t affect you here in Lancaster County.  Wherever you are, always get the local numbers and make decisions based on that.  Lucky for you, we have those local numbers!

Did you know that 50% of homes sold for under $300,000 in January? Despite the headlines, buying is within reach. 

Again, not everything you hear is true. It’s not all cash buyers out there. The majority of sales are still done with a mortgage. Not sure what your financing options are? We partner with a variety of local lenders, who have every program imaginable, for any buyer’s situation. We’ll connect you with the one that’s right for you! Give us a call or text us at (717) 371-0557 !

Getting more local, here are some numbers for Warwick, and the median sales price for all the school districts in Lancaster County for January.  The median sales price is a point where the exact middle is.  The median is where you find half the sales under that price, and half the sales over it.

Median Sales Prices for Lancaster County School Districts in January 2023:

Solanco: $284,500

Pequea Valley: $442,500

Penn Manor: $250,000

Columbia: $210,000

School District of Lancaster: $222,500

East Lancaster: $265,000

Conestoga Valley: $267,500

Lampeter Strasburg: $380,000

Cocalico: $322,450

Elizabethtown: $297,000

Manheim Central: $330,500

Ephrata: $227,500

Donegal: $238,000

Manheim Township: $390,000

Not sure where to start when it comes to buying or selling?   Want to discuss these numbers and how they affect you?  We can help! We’ll tell you what works best for you personally, because when it comes down to real estate, the best time to buy or sell is when it works for YOU! Don’t let the market dictate your life.

Your Friends in Real Estate, Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St, Lititz, PA 17543

 

 

 

Do you “make enough money” to buy a home? Probably yes!

Have you thought about owning but didn’t think you “made enough money” to buy a home?

Don’t Sleep On It

Did I mention it’s a Seller’s Market? Homes are moving fast and many with multiple offers! If you see a home you like, waiting can cost you if you don’t move quickly.