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For Everyone

There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

a graph of the economic growth of the economy

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars

As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn’t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Demand is still strong, and inventory levels are stable

You can see in this chart below, the level of active homes for sale is fairly stable, across all price ranges.  New listings enter the market each day.

The buyer demand for the listings shows in the pending sales chart here, the lines are pretty close. Homes come on the market, and they sell fast.

There isn’t much to be afraid of

There won’t be a wave of homes for sale that outpaces demand.  Most experts now think we won’t have a recession in the next year. They also don’t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.  The last crash is reflected in the chart below and shows you what happened to home values nationwide. While the numbers dipped, it was not for long, and they bounced right back. Not only will there not be a housing market crash, but even if we’re wrong, appreciation will bring values right back and then continue at a much more normal pace, as it has in the past.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom line. Opportunity is everywhere.

Supply and demand remain balanced, so what you can expect for 2024 is pretty much what you saw in the last two years.  We helped a lot of people find success buying, and selling, in these last few years, just like we did in the years before then.  Don’t bother waiting to try and “time the market”, lets talk about what you want, then we’ll help you decide if now is the time for you.   Will you compete as a buyer?   Yes. Will you find lots of buyers wanting your home when you sell?   Yes.   No matter what you want to do, opportunity is there for you.

When you’re ready to talk, we’ll be here.  Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Lititz Fire & Ice 2024: Fri, 2/16-Sun, 2/25

Get ready for 10 days of ice sculptures, special menu items, family friendly fun, and a whole lot more in Downtown Lititz, PA ! Below is the full schedule! For the full event info, including food trucks, FAQs, a giveaway, and the sponsors who support the event, visit the Lititz site here!

We’re proud to sponsor the annual Hometown Fire Crawl, where Downtown Lititz shops create special dishes, drinks & samples for the Fire & Ice Festival ! Some examples include a creme brulee latte, hot cocoa cookies with some heat, hot sauce samples, handcrafted cocktails & more!

We hope to see you there !

 

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Houses Are Still Selling Fast

Have you been thinking about selling your house? If so, here’s some good news. While the housing market isn’t as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when houses were selling quicker than ever, they’re still selling faster than historically normal.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to tell the story of median days on the market for every January from 2017 all the way through the latest numbers available. For Realtor.com, days on the market means from the time a house is listed for sale until its closing date or the date it’s taken off the market. This metric can help give you an idea of just how quickly homes are selling compared to more normal years:

When you look at the most recent data (shown in green), it’s clear homes are selling faster than they usually would (shown in blue). In fact, the only years when houses sold even faster than they are right now were the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). According to Realtor.com:

“Homes spent 69 days on the market, which is three days shorter than last year and more than two weeks shorter than before the COVID-19 pandemic.”

What Does This Mean for You?

Homes are selling faster than the norm for this time of year – and your house may sell quickly too. That’s because more people are looking to buy now that mortgage rates have come down, but there still aren’t enough homes to go around. Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Researchsays:

“. . . 2024 is starting stronger than last year. And demand is increasing each week.”

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering if it’s a good time to sell your home, the most recent data suggests it is. The housing market appears to be stronger than it usually is at this time of year. To get the latest updates on what’s happening in our local market, let’s connect.

 

Ready to be in a new home for next holiday season? We can help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Grayed Out

You’ve seen how gray has become the norm for new construction and renovated homes in the last decade. We’ve seen it in the form of paint, furniture, and decorations. Rip out the carpet, replace it with hardwood flooring, paint the walls gray, cabinets white, add a gray couch, and you’re done.  They call this look “millennial gray”.

Why do they call it “millennial gray” when plenty of Gen X’rs and Boomers bathed their homes in gray?  We don’t know, probably because they blame millennials for everything, but we can’t solve that problem here.  Back to the gray.  Or is it grey?

However you spell it, it has been everywhere.  The perk of gray is it’s neutral. There’s a lot of versatility.  Now, it’s coming to an end as tastes change (thank you everyone, gray is so played out it’s just now grayed out – Jason).  People are ready for something different.  It’s time to bring back some color to the world, are you ready for color and unique interior design?  We are (well, Jason is)!

Why should you use colors?

  • Stand out- accent walls and accent pieces help differentiate each room. You could have a room where 3 walls are a neutral color, with a 4th wall painted a bold color. Or the whole room is painted neutral, but you have a bold couch. Or an office where the built in shelving serves as the pop of color.
  • Feels more spacious- brighter tones can open up a room and help the space feel larger ! Darker shades can lead to rooms feeling smaller.
  • Add character- as thrifting has become more popular, and people are willing to experiment with interior design, there’s room for one-of-a-kind spaces that can’t be replicated like this gray and white color scheme.

How can you implement color ?

  • Accent wall or an accent piece- as we mentioned earlier, we can still use and appreciate the neutral aspect of gray, but can consider some other colors. A soft tan, pale green, or powder blue- there are a lot of options. Pick something neutral, then consider adding an statement wall or piece. For a wall, you can add texture (such as wood paneling), wallpaper, and/or a much bolder color. Or use cabinets, artwork, table, etc. You can see in the photo below that they chose a turquoise for the statement wall, then added a blanket in the same color to tie it in. You can also choose different shades of the accent color for smaller decor items.

  • Look at all aspects of the space- curtains, artwork, furniture, flooring, fabric, paint color, decor pieces, light fixtures, and more. Those are all an opportunity to use color!  Thrift stores and Facebook Marketplace are a great place to start when looking for affordable pieces.
  • Think about the versatility – whatever you do, you’re likely changing it in  the next 5-10 years, so find ways to balance what makes you happy with what balances the budget.  While fresh paint makes homes more desirable, no amount of color increases a property’s value, and your decor is going with you when you move.

Of course, no amount of new paint will fix everything, so if you’re looking for a new space altogether, you know we can help!  Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557, let’s talk about where you want to go next!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Info & ideas pulled from this article written by Evelyn Long for NAR.

 

How to Stop Junk Mail

Hey friends, how many of you love getting junk mail? Would you like to find a way to get out of getting junk mail?

It’s really actually easier than you think. The three credit reporting companies out there that keep track of everything you do, TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian, have lists that they sell on a regular basis to financial companies, credit cards, auto loan refinancers, insurance companies, you name it.  Watch this video for an easy way to opt out and protect your privacy!

A huge majority of these solicitations you find in your mailbox come from the fact that the credit reporting companies sell you on a list. If you want to get off that list, you can go to this page on FTC.gov and fill out the information requested. Your junk mail is going to trickle down to next to nothing, not nothing, because, you know, of course it’s 2024, you’re going to get tons of junk mail, no matter what, you’re not going to stop robocalls or all spam emails, but you can stop the credit reporting companies from selling you on lists of people that just want to spam your mailbox with mail that you don’t want, you don’t need, and things you’re just going to throw away anyway. So, you want to get rid of the junk mail? Go to www.OptOutPrescreen.com or find the link on FTC.gov

After you’re done, feel free to go to the individual credit reporting companies, TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian, and see if they have additional opt out methods on their website. You might have to create an account, but go in there and turn off their ability to sell you. Just because they’re collecting your information doesn’t mean you have to allow them to profit off of it. I hope that helps, and if you ever have any questions that I can answer for you, feel free to give me a call.

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Holiday Decor Organization

As the holidays come to a close and you begin to “de-decorate,” here are a few ways to keep your decorations organized.  Plan it out, be intentional, and your future self will thank you!

1. Tubs & labels- purchase clear tubs or heavy duty tubs like these to store everything. Having items “tucked away” keeps your storage area looking its best! Labels can be printed or handwritten onto masking/painter’s tape- just make sure you have the label on the side AND top of bin! Take it one step further and use an app like Sortly, which assigns you QR codes for each bin. Scan the code and you’ll be shown photos of that bin’s contents! (source)

2. Use cardboard for string lights– avoid tangles by wrapping string lights around cardboard! It’s the perfect way to use up empty gift boxes!

3. Hang wreaths- if you’re already using a closet to store decorations, you can use the existing rod to hang wreaths, or buy another rod to have a double decker closet ! That way your wreaths won’t get flattened in storage.

4. Accessibility- what decorations or materials are you reaching for first? Pack those away last so they’re easy to pull out next season!

5. Door organizer- maximize your storage space and have an over the door organizer for wrapping supplies! Stay organized and keep the supplies within arm’s reach for all gifting occasions!

6. Reuse tissue paper- save used tissue paper to wrap around fragile ornaments

7. Purchase a tree bag- keep your artificial tree clean & looking its best

8. Declutter- with all your decorations already out, now’s the time to decide what to keep, throw away, or donate!

Ready to be in a new home for next holiday season? We can help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

10 Simple Home Upgrades, on a Budget

You don’t have to knock out a wall or rip apart your kitchen to upgrade your living space. Small changes can make all the difference !

  1. Add some plants- a snake plant, peace lily, or fern can liven up your bathroom! Hang it from a ceiling hook, install a shelf, or have it on the vanity. Read here for plants that thrive in a bathroom. Consider shopping at the thrift store for a planter!
  2. Swap out hardware- simply changing out handles on cabinets & drawers can modernize your kitchen or bathroom space. You can do the same for all your doorknobs!
  3. Add a mirror- this is where we recommend searching a second hand site, such as Facebook Marketplace or OfferUp. You can find unique mirrors, of all sizes, for a low cost. They look great in a bedroom or living room! Hanging or propped up, mirrors make can make rooms appear bigger and brighter.
  4. Lighting- there are a few directions you can take this tip:
    • Add new lighting- purchase a floor or table lamp
    • Swap out light bulbs- consider changing the temperature of your current light bulbs. Does the bathroom feel too cool? Does the kitchen look orange? Light temperature (color) is measured on the Kelvin scale, with lower numbers (such as 3000K) being warmer, and higher numbers being cooler (5000K)
    • Spruce up light fixtures- you can change out a lamp shade, repaint the base, or change a fixture altogether! For example, your dining room light can be a statement piece.
  5. Texturize- adding texture can make a space more visually interesting. This can be as intense as you choose- find a TV stand with fluting, or just add a chunky blanket to the couch! You can look for pillows, couch covers, or even accent chairs to mix up the texture. Thrift stores are a great place to start! The best part is you can easily change out blankets and pillows for the seasons to keep a living room or bedroom feeling fresh.
  6. Home organization- for in and out of plain view, cohesive organization systems not only look cleaner, but make you feel better as well. This could look like clear drawer organizers, a canister set for your counter, or adding bins to your pantry. Dollar Tree and Five Below have affordable bins!
  7. Wallpaper- peel and stick wallpaper can be used on a statement wall or for bookshelves & drawers!
  8. Outdoor planters- add flower boxes below your windows, a hanging basket stake along your walkway, or just a planter on your front porch!
  9. Rugs- the price varies, but again, try checking out local thrift stores, Facebook Marketplace, and discount stores, such as Ollie’s
  10. Curtains- not only are they practical for privacy, but they can help tie a room together! Consider sheerness, length, and color, depending on the room.

And of course, the ultimate home upgrade, buying a new place to start all over again is something we can always help you with!

Ready to make a move? We can help! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

Ideas pulled from this article!

News to Share !

The Jason Burkholder Team has affiliated with Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC! We’re thrilled to partner with Broker Jeff Bowman and his team at this independent real estate firm, where we offer depth of experience and a partnership like none other.

We plan on increasing our local community involvement, while helping sellers and buyers move forward with a commitment to making any market successful! This partnership also allows us to add an affiliation with Hometown Property Management Services, to bring you an even wider range of services.

We’re based in Lancaster and Lititz, we serve clients in Lancaster, Lebanon, Berks, York, and Dauphin counties, and we have relationships with a wide network of professional Realtors that are everywhere we aren’t. Our team is locally focused, with a regional reach and global connections to help you move anywhere you want to be.

Looking to sell or buy real estate? Call us at 717-371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, PA 17543

5 Fall Maintenance Tasks to fit in before Winter

Winter is coming…..

Ok, well, not to be that dramatic but it is fall, so winter will be here soon.  Don’t forget to take care of a few outside chores in the next month before it arrives, so you can stay indoors cozy and warm this winter without preventable problems!

Before we get to the chore list, don’t forget to follow Tom Roe Photography so you can find out where he is selling his fantastic 2024 calendars featuring scenes from Lititz PA!  This pic is in our 2023 calendar in the office, and if you want one for 2024 you can find Tom on Facebook or check out his website for order info!

  • Clean your gutters- clogged gutters can lead to roof damage and even attract pests and rodents. After the leaves have fallen, clear out your gutters (or hire someone to help!), and make sure they are attached securely to your home.
  • Detach your hoses- if you wait too long, water could freeze and result in a cracked faucet or pipes.
  • Mow your lawn one last time- cut your grass ½ an inch lower than usual to prevent pests and keep your grass healthy!
  • Add fuel stabilizer to your mower- after your last mow of the season, add fuel stabilizer to your mower’s gas tank to prevent the gas from breaking down. Otherwise, you can clog up your carburetor and have a mess when it’s time to mow in the spring.
  • Furnace maintenance- have an HVAC professional look over your furnace, and replace the air filters, before it’s time to use it! No heat is no fun, preventative maintenance goes a long way towards keeping you warm!

Need help with any of the above? We can connect you to the right person ! Give us a call or text at (717) 371-0557!

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Team

——————

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Jaci Hoosier

717-371-0557 direct or text

Hometown Property Sales Group, LLC

717-207-8093 office

227 N Duke St, Lancaster, PA 17602

 

Fear, less

Photo by 愚木混株 cdd20 on Unsplash

“Scary times don’t call for fearless leaders. We don’t need a gladiator jumping into an arena with the hungry tiger.  Instead, times of fear and uncertainty call for leaders to become fear(less) — aware of and consciously able to sort through what is truly scary and deserves careful consideration and what is causing undue stress and anxiety without being a real threat.”

That quote came out of a quick article I read, here in this link .   For the sake of this discussion, replace the word “leaders” with people.  After all, leaders are just people, individual persons.  You are also a person.

What does this have to do with real estate?  Well, if I’m being philosophical, real estate is about people’s lives.  A person can’t live their life in a constant state of fear, and really, there is no hungry tiger to defeat in this story, it’s real estate.  What’s there to defeat?  What is there even to fear?

If you care about real estate, the enemy is misinformation, uncertainty and the fear it drives.

It makes you question everything, and end up doing nothing.  It’s not enough for me to say “be fear(less)” if you’re jumping into this real estate market.  You have to actually be able to fear less things.  Your ability to be “aware of and consciously able to sort through what is truly scary and deserves careful consideration and what is causing undue stress and anxiety without being a real threat” is important when you’re thinking about making a purchase or sale that will change your life and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

See, if you’ve been on the internet, or listen to the radio, or watch tv, you find pretty quickly we live in a world full of threats, real and imaginary.  Fear.  BE AFRAID.  But mostly, the fear is imaginary. Clickbait. Lots of somebody’s hot take bullshit out there masquerading as news so you click and share.  Sorry for the language, but it’s true.

Not only are we bombarded by headlines full of fear, but most of them are full of misinformation, missing pieces, things that are flat out incorrect analysis and bullshit.  Take these statements for example:

  • The market is going to crash!
  • Investors are buying all the affordable homes with cash
  • Higher interest rates mean people can’t buy.
  • Multiple offers are gone! 
  • Foreclosures are coming! 

Fear, sensationalism and wrong information in each bullet point.   Why do I say that?  Because we don’t write headlines, we sell real estate.  We actually are working in the market every day, with buyers buying and sellers selling, not writing clickbait for ad revenue.  Here’s the answer to each of those bullet points.

  • The market is going to crash!  No, it isn’t, 2023 is on track to mirror prior years in many ways when it comes to closed sales, people are still buying.
  • Investors are buying all the affordable homes with cash.  No, cash sales were only 26% of recent sales, and investors were less than 20% of sales in PA, some areas lower than 10%.  Sure, there are cash buyers.  But not all of them.
  • Higher interest rates mean people can’t buy!  No, not true, people are buying all the time, like I said, we are pretty similar to last year.  Interest rates have absolutely affected affordability and made payments higher, but it has not stopped the prices from rising.
  • Multiple offers are gone!  No, there are fewer, but they are still there.
  • Foreclosures are coming!  No, they aren’t, distressed homes are still less than 1% of home sales nationwide.

That’s the best part of working with us.  You don’t have to figure out what’s true, and what’s not, in the headlines.  There isn’t anything to be afraid of.  You’re either wanting to buy a property or you aren’t.  You’re either wanting to sell a property or you aren’t.  If you are thinking about jumping into this, selling or buying, we can help you.

We know how to look at it all critically, and we’ll help you make sense of it.  We have sellers selling each week with multiple offers over list price.  We also have buyers winning multiple offer situations, buyers getting contracts signed with the ability to do home inspections, buyers getting contracts signed with offers that include seller help with closing costs, and buyer’s buying homes for list price or less.

We are not confused, we are not afraid and we’re ready to help you too.  Call us at 717-371-0557, let’s talk! – Jason

 

Your Friends in Real Estate,

Jason Burkholder Real Estate Team

Jason Burkholder

Kelly Burkholder

Adam High

Jaci Hoosier

Welcome Home Real Estate

717-298-8040 office

57 E Main St

Lititz, Pa 17543